Development and validation of a risk prediction model for anxiety or depression among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease between 2018 and 2020

Anxiety and depression are important risk factors for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to predict anxiety or depression in COPD patients. The retrospective study was conducted in COPD patients receiving stable treatment between 2018 and 2020 to develop prediction model. The variables, were readily available in clinical practice, were analysed. After data preprocessing, model training and performance evaluation were performed. Validity of the prediction model was verified in 3 comparative model training. Between 2018 and 2020, 375 eligible patients were analysed. Thirteen variables were included into the final model: gender, age, marital status, education level, long-term residence, per capita annual household income, payment method of medical expenses, direct economic costs of treating COPD in the past year, smoking, COPD progression, number of acute exacerbation of COPD in the last year, regular treatment with inhalants and family oxygen therapy. Risk score threshold in each sample in the training set was 1.414. The area under the curve value was respectively 0.763 and 0.702 in the training set and test set, which were higher than three comparative models. The simple prediction model to predict anxiety or depression in patients with COPD has been developed. Based on 13 available data in clinical indicators, the model may serve as an instrument for clinical decision-making for COPD patients who may have anxiety or depression. Key messages Thirteen variables were included into the prediction model. The AUC value was, respectively, 0.763 and 0.702 in the training set and test set, which were higher than three comparative models. The simple prediction model to predict anxiety or depression in patients with COPD has been developed.