Seasonality of infectious diseases

被引:265
作者
Fisman, David N. [1 ]
机构
[1] Hosp Sick Children, Res Inst, Child Hlth Evaluat Sci, Toronto, ON M5G 1E2, Canada
[2] Ontario Prov Publ Hlth Lab, Toronto, ON M5G 1E2, Canada
关键词
periodicity; communicable diseases; disease transmission; environment; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM MALARIA; DRINKING-WATER TURBIDITY; WEATHER-BASED PREDICTION; EPIDEMIC-PRONE REGIONS; UNITED-STATES; GASTROINTESTINAL ILLNESS; LEGIONELLA-PNEUMOPHILA; MENINGOCOCCAL DISEASE; INFLUENZA EPIDEMICS; GENE-EXPRESSION;
D O I
10.1146/annurev.publhealth.28.021406.144128
中图分类号
R1 [预防医学、卫生学];
学科分类号
1004 ; 120402 ;
摘要
Seasonality, a periodic surge in disease incidence corresponding to seasons or other calendar periods, characterizes many infectious diseases of public health importance. The recognition of seasonal patterns in infectious disease occurrence dates back at least as far as the Hippocratic era, but mechanisms underlying seasonality of person-to-person transmitted diseases are not well understood. Improved understanding will enhance understanding of host-pathogen interactions and will improve the accuracy of public health surveillance and forecasting systems. Insight into seasonal disease patterns may be gained through the use of autocorrelation methods or construction of periodograms, while seasonal oscillation of infectious diseases can be easily simulated using simple transmission models. Models demonstrate that small seasonal changes in host or pathogen factors may be sufficient to create large seasonal surges in disease incidence, which may be important particularly in the context of global climate change. Seasonality represents a rich area for future research.
引用
收藏
页码:127 / 143
页数:23
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