Transmission dynamics and control of Ebola virus disease (EVD): a review

被引：259

作者：

Chowell, Gerardo ^{[1
,2
]}

Nishiura, Hiroshi ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Arizona State Univ, Sch Human Evolut & Social Change, Tempe, AZ 85004 USA

[2] NIH, Div Int Epidemiol & Populat Studies, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[3] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Med, Dept Global Hlth Policy, Bunkyo Ku, Tokyo 1100033, Japan

来源：

BMC MEDICINE | 2014年 / 12卷

基金：

英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会;

关键词：

Ebola Virus Disease; Transmission model; Control interventions; Basic reproduction number; West Africa; Incubation; Serial interval; Case fatality ratio; Isolation; Behavior change; ACUTE RESPIRATORY SYNDROME; HEMORRHAGIC-FEVER; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; RISK-FACTORS; HONG-KONG; OUTBREAK; CONGO; SARS; EPIDEMIC; IMPACT;

D O I：

10.1186/s12916-014-0196-0

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

The complex and unprecedented Ebola epidemic ongoing in West Africa has highlighted the need to review the epidemiological characteristics of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) as well as our current understanding of the transmission dynamics and the effect of control interventions against Ebola transmission. Here we review key epidemiological data from past Ebola outbreaks and carry out a comparative review of mathematical models of the spread and control of Ebola in the context of past outbreaks and the ongoing epidemic in West Africa. We show that mathematical modeling offers useful insights into the risk of a major epidemic of EVD and the assessment of the impact of basic public health measures on disease spread. We also discuss the critical need to collect detailed epidemiological data in real-time during the course of an ongoing epidemic, carry out further studies to estimate the effectiveness of interventions during past outbreaks and the ongoing epidemic, and develop large-scale modeling studies to study the spread and control of viral hemorrhagic fevers in the context of the highly heterogeneous economic reality of African countries.

引用

页数：16

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