An updated scenario typology

被引：409

作者：

van Notten, PWF ^{[1
]}

Rotmans, J ^{[1
]}

van Asselt, MBA ^{[1
]}

Rothman, DS ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] ICIS, NL-6200 MD Maastricht, Netherlands

来源：

FUTURES | 2003年 / 35卷 / 05期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/S0016-3287(02)00090-3

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

Scenario analysis has evolved notably in its 50-year history and today there is a large diversity in the scenarios that are developed. Establishing an overview of this diversity would be useful for the further development of scenario method. However, such an overview cannot be generated without the use of a shared understanding of the typical features of scenario development and of the relevant terminology. A broadly shared scenario typology can provide this common understanding but existing typologies do not capture the diversity of scenario types. To this end we propose an updated typology, the presentation of which is the focus of this paper. We also explain how the typology was tested for its robustness in a comparative analysis of recent scenario projects. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：423 / 443

页数：21