Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK

被引：66

作者：

Ghani, AC ^{[1
]}

Donnelly, CA ^{[1
]}

Ferguson, NM ^{[1
]}

Anderson, RM ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ London Imperial Coll Sci Technol & Med, Fac Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London W2 1PG, England

来源：

BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES | 2003年 / 3卷 / 1期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1186/1471-2334-3-4

中图分类号：

R51 [传染病];

学科分类号：

100401 ;

摘要：

Background: Past projections of the future course of the vCJD epidemic in the UK have shown considerable uncertainty, with wide confidence bounds. However, recent vCJD case data have indicated a decrease in the annual incidence of deaths over the past two years. Methods: A detailed survival model is fitted to the 121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 stratified by age and calendar time to obtain projections of future incidence. The model is additionally fitted to recent results from a survey of appendix tissues. Results: Our results show a substantial decrease in the uncertainty of the future course of the primary epidemic in the susceptible genotype (MM-homozygous at codon 129 of the prion protein gene), with a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9-540) based on fitting to the vCJD case data alone. Additional fitting of the appendix data increases these estimates ( best estimate 100, 95% prediction interval 10-2,600) but remains lower than previous projections. Conclusions: The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline.

引用

页数：8

共 32 条

[1] Codon 129 prion protein genotype and sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease [J].

Alperovitch, A ;

Zerr, I ;

Pocchiari, M ;

Mitrova, E ;

Cuesta, JD ;

Hegyi, I ;

Collins, S ;

Kretzschmar, H ;

van Duijn, C ;

Will, RG .

LANCET, 1999, 353 (9165) :1673-1674

[2] Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle [J].

Anderson, RM ;

Donnelly, CA ;

Ferguson, NM ;

Woolhouse, MEJ ;

Watt, CJ ;

Udy, HJ ;

MaWhinney, S ;

Dunstan, SP ;

Southwood, TRE ;

Wilesmith, JW ;

Ryan, JBM ;

Hoinville, LJ ;

Hillerton, JE ;

Austin, AR ;

Wells, GAH .

NATURE, 1996, 382 (6594) :779-788

[3]

ASHER DM, 1973, S 4 INT C PRIM NONH, P43

[4] Iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease at the millennium [J].

Brown, P ;

Preece, M ;

Brandel, JP ;

Sato, T ;

McShane, L ;

Zerr, I ;

Fletcher, A ;

Will, RG ;

Pocchiari, M ;

Cashman, NR ;

d'Aignaux, JH ;

Cervenáková, L ;

Fradkin, J ;

Schonberger, LB ;

Collins, SJ .

NEUROLOGY, 2000, 55 (08) :1075-1081

[5] Transmissions to mice indicate that 'new variant' CJD is caused by the BSE agent [J].

Bruce, ME ;

Will, RG ;

Ironside, JW ;

McConnell, I ;

Drummond, D ;

Suttie, A ;

McCardle, L ;

Chree, A ;

Hope, J ;

Birkett, C ;

Cousens, S ;

Fraser, H ;

Bostock, CJ .

NATURE, 1997, 389 (6650) :498-501

[6] Molecular analysis of prion strain variation and the aetiology of 'new variant' CJD [J].

Collinge, J ;

Sidle, KCL ;

Meads, J ;

Ironside, J ;

Hill, AF .

NATURE, 1996, 383 (6602) :685-690

[7] GENETIC PREDISPOSITION TO IATROGENIC CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB DISEASE [J].

COLLINGE, J ;

PALMER, MS ;

DRYDEN, AJ .

LANCET, 1991, 337 (8755) :1441-1442

[8]

Cooper J D, 2002, J Cancer Epidemiol Prev, V7, P59, DOI 10.1080/147666502321082728

[9]

Cooper J D, 2002, J Cancer Epidemiol Prev, V7, P49, DOI 10.1080/147666502321082719

[10] Incubation period of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in human growth hormone recipients in France [J].

d'Aignaux, JH ;

Costagliola, D ;

Maccario, J ;

de Villemeur, TB ;

Brandel, JP ;

Deslys, JP ;

Hauw, JJ ;

Chaussain, JL ;

Agid, Y ;

Dormont, D ;

Alpérovitch, A .

NEUROLOGY, 1999, 53 (06) :1197-1201

← 1 2 3 4 →