Interest rate targeting and the dynamics of short-term rates

A feature of U.S. monetary policy has been active targeting of overnight fed funds rates. We show that during a period of tight targeting (1989-1996) term fed funds spreads from the target displayed pronounced volatility and persistence, which increase with the maturity of the loan. We show that the increase in persistence is consistent with a model of infrequent, but predictable revisions of the target. In our model, the (autoco-)variance of the spreads of term fed funds rates from the target increases with maturity because longer-term rates reflect persistent expectations of the next target change.