Computing extreme avalanches

被引:57
作者
Ancey, C [1 ]
Gervasoni, C
Meunier, M
机构
[1] Ecole Polytech Fed Lausanne, Lab Hydraul Environm, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland
[2] Politecn Milan, Hydraul Div, I-20133 Milan, Italy
[3] Irstea, Unite Eros Torrentielle Neige & Avalanches, F-38402 St Martin Dheres, France
关键词
Monte Carlo simulation; calibration; avalanche;
D O I
10.1016/j.coldregions.2004.04.004
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Increasing the reliability and accuracy of avalanche zoning method is of primary importance in heavily populated areas of the Alps. This usually involves computing the characteristics of large return-period avalanches. Current tools (avalanche-dynamics or statistical models) cannot achieve this objective properly. A new generation of models has emerged, which, by combining statistical and deterministic viewpoints, can reduce a number of shortcomings in the original tools. This paper explores the possibility of updating the Salm-Burkard-Gubler method by adding a probabilistic procedure for fitting parameters to field data and using it in Monte Carlo simulations. The resulting model is intended to provide more accurate results of extreme avalanches. It has been applied to a series of close avalanche paths in the French Alps. Despite their similarities, these paths reveal some differences in their avalanche activity in terms of frequency and maximum run-out distance. Therefore, in order to provide a fair description of the intensity/frequency relationship, the model parameters must be fitted for each path, which leads to thinking that not all the important physical processes have been taken into account in this model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:161 / 180
页数:20
相关论文
共 54 条
[21]  
DENT JD, 1982, COLD REG SCI TECHNOL, V5, P243
[22]  
EGLIT M, 1998, 25 YEARS SNOW AVALAN, V203, P15
[23]  
EGLIT ME, 1984, GD16 US DEP AGR FOR, P63
[24]  
FUJISAWA K, 1993, ANN GLACIOL-SER, V18, P239, DOI 10.1017/S0260305500011587
[25]  
GHALI A, 1996, THESIS U J FOURIER G
[26]  
Gilks W.R., 1996, Monte Carlo in Practice, P75
[27]   On probability analysis in snow avalanche hazard zoning [J].
Harbitz, C ;
Harbitz, A ;
Nadim, F .
ANNALS OF GLACIOLOGY, VOL 32, 2001, 2001, 32 :290-298
[28]  
HOPF J, 1998, 25 YEARS SNOW AVALAN, V203, P28
[29]  
Hosmer D.W., 1986, APPL LOGISTIC REGRES
[30]   NEWTONIAN FLUID-MECHANICS TREATMENT OF DEBRIS FLOWS AND AVALANCHES [J].
HUNT, B .
JOURNAL OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING-ASCE, 1994, 120 (12) :1350-1363