Definition of the potentially fertile period from urinary steroid excretion rates. Part II. A threshold value for pregnanediol glucuronide as a marker for the end of the potentially fertile period in the human menstrual cycle

Application of time series analysis to a database containing serial pregnanediol data from 113 complete ovulatory menstrual cycles contributed by 83 women of proven fertility and 68 cycles for which pregnanediol values were available over the ovulatory period detected the first statistically significant rise in pregnanediol excretion for all cycles for which a baseline was available (n = 170). However, even at the 99% confidence level, for 22% of cycles a rise was observed before the presumed day of ovulation. Therefore, a threshold value for pregnanediol was sought from the database as a better marker for the end of fertility. A value of 1.4 mg per 24 h was not reached before day 2 after the pre-ovulatory estrogen peak day for 96% of the cycles. In the remaining 4% of cycles it was reached one day after the total estrogen peak day. The validity of this threshold was confirmed in extensive studies using the Ovarian Monitor where the equivalent is 6.3 mu mol per 24 h of pregnanediol glucuronide and measurements are performed on timed urine specimens with a minimum collection time of three hours. These studies were as follows: 1) a World Health Organization study on the use of the Ovarian Monitor as a fertility self test in the home (108 cycles), 2) a multicenter study on returning fertility during breastfeeding conducted by Family Health International (73 women), and 3) the general application of the Ovarian Monitor for pregnancy achievement and avoidance during the past ten years (over 250,000 PdG assays performed in ten countries). With rare exceptions, the use of these threshold values is applicable for all women provided correction is made for urine volume. (C) 1998 by Elsevier Science Inc.