German Multicenter Study Group for Adult ALL (GMALL): recruitment in comparison to ALL incidence and its impact on study results

Due to eligibility criteria not all patients with the disease under investigation can be recruited for therapeutic studies. Thus, the external validity of study results cannot per se be taken for granted. The representativity of the admitted patients is the most relevant determinant for external validity and has to be assessed. As an example we examined the representativity of the patients recruited for the German multicenter study group for adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) (GMALL). Lacking nationwide ALL incidence figures available in Germany, a methodology was developed to estimate incidence figures, too. All relevant study groups, hospitals, and diagnostic labs were asked to provide data about patients with ALL newly diagnosed between 1997 and 1998. A matching procedure was developed, as heterogeneous databases had to be pooled and checked for duplicates. Age- and sex-specific incidences of ALL were estimated and compared with the number of patients recruited for the GMALL in the same time period. The purpose was to develop a methodology for estimating incidence figures and evaluating the representativity of patients of the GMALL. The combination of various data sources allowed estimation of reliable incidence data for ALL in Germany. Comparisons with the incidence figures for ALL in other countries and crosschecks within Germany confirm our results. Sixty-two percent of all ALL patients in Germany were admitted to the GMALL study. The recruitment rate of more than 60% of the annual incidence of ALL to the GMALL suggests a high external validity as well as an impact of the study on the patterns of treatment and referral of ALL in adults in Germany. There is no selection bias of patients admitted to the GMALL compared to those patients not included in the study.