Establishment and cryptic transmission of Zika virus in Brazil and the Americas

被引：389

作者：

Faria, N. R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Quick, J. ^{[3
]}

Claro, I. M. ^{[4
,5
]}

Theze, J. ^{[1
]}

de Jesus, J. G. ^{[6
]}

Giovanetti, M. ^{[6
,7
]}

Kraemer, M. U. G. ^{[1
,8
,9
]}

Hill, S. C. ^{[1
]}

Black, A. ^{[10
,11
]}

da Costa, A. C. ^{[4
,5
]}

Franco, L. C. ^{[2
]}

Silva, S. P. ^{[2
]}

Wu, C. -H. ^{[12
]}

Raghwani, J. ^{[1
]}

Cauchemez, S. ^{[13
,14
,15
]}

du Plessis, L. ^{[1
]}

Verotti, M. P. ^{[16
]}

de Oliveira, W. K. ^{[17
,18
]}

Carmo, E. H. ^{[19
]}

Coelho, G. E. ^{[20
,21
]}

Santelli, A. C. F. S. ^{[20
,22
]}

Vinhal, L. C. ^{[20
]}

Henriques, C. M. ^{[19
]}

Simpson, J. T. ^{[23
]}

Loose, M. ^{[24
]}

Andersen, K. G. ^{[25
]}

Grubaugh, N. D. ^{[25
]}

Somasekar, S. ^{[26
,27
]}

Chiu, C. Y. ^{[26
,27
]}

Munoz-Medina, J. E. ^{[28
]}

Gonzalez-Bonilla, C. R. ^{[28
]}

Arias, C. F. ^{[29
]}

Lewis-Ximenez, L. L. ^{[30
]}

Baylis, S. A. ^{[31
]}

Chieppe, A. O. ^{[32
]}

Aguiar, S. F. ^{[32
]}

Fernandes, C. A. ^{[32
]}

Lemos, P. S. ^{[2
]}

Nascimento, B. L. S. ^{[2
]}

Monteiro, H. A. O. ^{[2
]}

Siqueira, I. C. ^{[6
]}

de Queiroz, M. G. ^{[33
]}

de Souza, T. R. ^{[33
,34
]}

Bezerra, J. F. ^{[33
,35
]}

Lemos, M. R. ^{[36
]}

Pereira, G. F. ^{[36
]}

Loudal, D. ^{[36
]}

Moura, L. C. ^{[36
]}

Dhalia, R. ^{[37
]}

Franca, R. F. ^{[37
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Dept Zool, Oxford OX1 3SY, England

[2] Minist Hlth, Evandro Chagas Inst, Ananindeua, Brazil

[3] Univ Birmingham, Inst Microbiol & Infect, Birmingham, W Midlands, England

[4] Univ Sao Paulo, Sch Med, Dept Infect Dis, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[5] Univ Sao Paulo, Inst Trop Med, Sao Paulo, Brazil

[6] Fiocruz MS, Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, BA, Brazil

[7] Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Rome, Italy

[8] Harvard Med Sch, Boston, MA USA

[9] Boston Childrens Hosp, Boston, MA USA

[10] Fred Hutchinson Canc Res Ctr, Vaccine & Infect Dis Div, 1124 Columbia St, Seattle, WA 98104 USA

[11] Univ Washington, Dept Epidemiol, Seattle, WA 98195 USA

[12] Univ Oxford, Dept Stat, Oxford OX1 3LB, England

[13] Inst Pasteur, Math Modelling Infect Dis, Paris, France

[14] Inst Pasteur, Ctr Bioinformat Biostat & Integrat Biol, Paris, France

[15] Ctr Natl Rech Sci, URA3012, Paris, France

[16] Minist Hlth, Coordena Lab Saude CGLAB DEVIT SVS, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[17] Minist Hlth, Coordena Geral Vigilincia & Resposta Emergencias, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[18] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz FIOCRUZ, Ctr Data & Knowledge Integrat Hlth CIDACS, Salvador, BA, Brazil

[19] Minist Hlth, Dept Vigilincia Doencas Transmissiveis, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[20] Minist Hlth, Coordena Geral Programas Controle & Preven Malari, Brasilia, DF, Brazil

[21] PAHO, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina

[22] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz FIOCRUZ, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[23] Ontario Inst Canc Res, Toronto, ON, Canada

[24] Univ Nottingham, Nottingham, England

[25] Scripps Res Inst, Dept Immunol & Microbial Sci, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA

[26] Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Lab Med, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA

[27] Univ Calif San Francisco, Dept Med Infect & Dis, San Francisco, CA 94143 USA

[28] Inst Mexicano Seguro Social, Div Labs Vigilancia & Invest Epidemiol, Mexico City, DF, Mexico

[29] Univ Nacl Autonoma Mexico, Inst Biotecnol, Cuernavaca, Morelos, Mexico

[30] Inst Oswaldo Cruz FIOCRUZ, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[31] Paul Ehrlich Inst, Langen, Germany

[32] Lab Cent Saude Publ Noel Nutels, Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

[33] Labo Cent Saude Publ Estado Rio Grande Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil

[34] Univ Potiguar Rio Grande Norte, Natal, RN, Brazil

[35] Fundacao Natalense Ensino & Cultura, Natal, RN, Brazil

[36] Lab Cent Saude Publ Estado Paraiba, Joao Pessoa, Paraiba, Brazil

[37] Fundacao Oswaldo Cruz FIOCRUZ, Recife, PE, Brazil

[38] Colorado State Univ, Dept Microbiol Immunol & Pathol, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA

[39] Univ Heidelberg Hosp, Dept Infect Dis, Sect Clin Trop Med, Heidelberg, Germany

[40] Lab Cent Saude Publ Estado Alagoas, Maceio, Brazil

[41] Univ Estadual Feira de Santana, Feira Santana, Bahia, Argentina

[42] Secretaria Saude Feira Santana, Feira De Santana, Bahia, Brazil

[43] Univ Fed Amazonas, Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil

[44] Hosp Sao Francisco, Ribeirao Preto, Brazil

[45] Univ Fed Tocantins, Palmas, Brazil

[46] Univ Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia

[47] Univ Edinburgh, Inst Evolutionary Biol, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, Midlothian, Scotland

[48] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bldg 10, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[49] Univ Texas Med Branch, Dept Pathol, Galveston, TX 77555 USA

[50] Metabiota, San Francisco, CA 94104 USA

来源：

NATURE | 2017年 / 546卷 / 7658期

基金：

英国医学研究理事会; 英国惠康基金; 巴西圣保罗研究基金会;

关键词：

TIME; EVOLUTION; MODELS; DENGUE; BAHIA; EMERGENCE; SELECTION; OUTBREAK; ACCURATE; SALVADOR;

D O I：

10.1038/nature22401

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Transmission of Zika virus (ZIKV) in the Americas was first confirmed in May 2015 in northeast Brazil(1). Brazil has had the highest number of reported ZIKV cases worldwide (more than 200,000 by 24 December 20162) and the most cases associated with microcephaly and other birth defects (2,366 confirmed by 31 December 20162). Since the initial detection of ZIKV in Brazil, more than 45 countries in the Americas have reported local ZIKV transmission, with 24 of these reporting severe ZIKV-associated disease(3). However, the origin and epidemic history of ZIKV in Brazil and the Americas remain poorly understood, despite the value of this information for interpreting observed trends in reported microcephaly. Here we address this issue by generating 54 complete or partial ZIKV genomes, mostly from Brazil, and reporting data generated by a mobile genomics laboratory that travelled across northeast Brazil in 2016. One sequence represents the earliest confirmed ZIKV infection in Brazil. Analyses of viral genomes with ecological and epidemiological data yield an estimate that ZIKV was present in northeast Brazil by February 2014 and is likely to have disseminated from there, nationally and internationally, before the first detection of ZIKV in the Americas. Estimated dates for the international spread of ZIKV from Brazil indicate the duration of pre-detection cryptic transmission in recipient regions. The role of northeast Brazil in the establishment of ZIKV in the Americas is further supported by geographic analysis of ZIKV transmission potential and by estimates of the basic reproduction number of the virus.

引用

页码：406 / +

页数：18

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