Incorporation of variability into the modeling of viral delays in HIV infection dynamics

We consider classes of functional differential equation models which arise in attempts to describe temporal delays in HIV pathogenesis. In particular, we develop methods for incorporating arbitrary variability (i.e., general probability distributions) for these delays into systems that cannot readily be reduced to a finite number of coupled ordinary differential equations (as is done in the method of stages). We discuss modeling from first principles, introduce several classes of non-linear models (including discrete and distributed delays) and present a discussion of theoretical and computational approaches. We then use the resulting methodology to carry out simulations and perform parameter estimation calculations, fitting the models to a set of experimental data. Results obtained confirm the statistical significance of the presence of delays and the importance of including delays in validating mathematical models with experimental data. We also show that the models are quite sensitive to the mean of the distribution which describes the delay in viral production, whereas the variance of this distribution has relatively little impact. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.