Past water-balance changes in Tibetan lakes are generally attributed to changes in the strength of the summer monsoon. However, the water balance of a lake reflects many different water fluxes, which are controlled by many climatic and hydrologic processes. In this research, weather data and evaporation models are used to determine the climatic cause of a recent water-balance change in Ahung Co, a lake in central Tibet. Between 1995 and 2001, lake level rose at least 20 cm and the lake began to overflow. Results indicate that an increase in summer monsoon precipitation over the lake and drainage basin is responsible for the rise in lake level. Stronger monsoon conditions between 1995 and 2001 also led to decreased lake evaporation and basin evapotranspiration due to increased clouds and humidity. This contributed to the rise in lake level, but to a much smaller extent than the increase in monsoon precipitation. Lake evaporation during the spring and fall was also reduced between 1995 and 2001 due to longer lasting ice cover. Variations in ice cover play a small role in the overall water balance of Ahung Co, however, because the lake area is small compared to the drainage basin area. If these results hold true for the past, water-balance fluctuations inferred from the geochemistry of sediments from Ahung Co provide a record of variations in monsoon precipitation during the Holocene.
