Evaluation of several PM2.5 forecast models using data collected during the ICARTT/NEAQS 2004 field study

被引:117
作者
McKeen, S. [1 ]
Chung, S. H.
Wilczak, J.
Grell, G.
Djalalova, I.
Peckham, S.
Gong, W.
Bouchet, V.
Moffet, R.
Tang, Y.
Carmichael, G. R.
Mathur, R.
Yu, S.
机构
[1] NOAA, Div Chem Sci, Environm Sci Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
[2] Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
[3] NOAA, Div Phys Sci, Environm Sci Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
[4] NOAA, Global Syst Div, Environm Sci Res Lab, Boulder, CO 80305 USA
[5] Meteorol Serv Canada, Downsview, ON M3H 5T4, Canada
[6] Meteorol Serv Canada, Dorval, PQ H9P 1J3, Canada
[7] Univ Iowa, Ctr Global & Reg Environm Res, Iowa City, IA 52242 USA
[8] NOAA, Air Resources Lab, Silver Spring, MD 20910 USA
[9] US EPA, Natl Exposure Res Lab, ASMD, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA
[10] Sci & Technol Corp, Hampton, VA 23666 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1029/2006JD007608
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Real-time forecasts of PM2.5 aerosol mass from seven air quality forecast models (AQFMs) are statistically evaluated against observations collected in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada from two surface networks and aircraft data during the summer of 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)/New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS) field campaign. The AIRNOW surface network is used to evaluate PM2.5 aerosol mass, the U.S. EPA STN network is used for PM2.5 aerosol composition comparisons, and aerosol size distribution and composition measured from the NOAA P-3 aircraft are also compared. Statistics based on midday 8-hour averages, as well as 24-hour averages are evaluated against the AIRNOW surface network. When the 8-hour average PM2.5 statistics are compared against equivalent ozone statistics for each model, the analysis shows that PM2.5 forecasts possess nearly equivalent correlation, less bias, and better skill relative to the corresponding ozone forecasts. An analysis of the diurnal variability shows that most models do not reproduce the observed diurnal cycle at urban and suburban monitor locations, particularly during the nighttime to early morning transition. While observations show median rural PM2.5 levels similar to urban and suburban values, the models display noticeably smaller rural/urban PM2.5 ratios. The ensemble PM2.5 forecast, created by combining six separate forecasts with equal weighting, is also evaluated and shown to yield the best possible forecast in terms of the statistical measures considered. The comparisons of PM2.5 composition with NOAA P-3 aircraft data reveals two important features: (1) The organic component of PM2.5 is significantly underpredicted by all the AQFMs and (2) those models that include aqueous phase oxidation of SO2 to sulfate in clouds overpredict sulfate levels while those AQFMs that do not include this transformation mechanism underpredict sulfate. Errors in PM2.5 ammonium levels tend to correlate directly with errors in sulfate. Comparisons of PM2.5 composition with the U. S. EPA STN network for three of the AQFMs show that sulfate biases are consistently lower at the surface than aloft. Recommendations for further research and analysis to help improve PM2.5 forecasts are also provided.
引用
收藏
页数:20
相关论文
共 49 条
[31]   MADM - A new multicomponent aerosol dynamics model [J].
Pilinis, C ;
Capaldo, KP ;
Nenes, A ;
Pandis, SN .
AEROSOL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY, 2000, 32 (05) :482-502
[32]   Semi-Lagrangian modelling of tropospheric ozone [J].
Pudykiewicz, JA ;
Kallaur, A ;
Smolarkiewicz, PK .
TELLUS SERIES B-CHEMICAL AND PHYSICAL METEOROLOGY, 1997, 49 (03) :231-248
[34]   Current status of air quality models for particulate matter [J].
Seigneur, C .
JOURNAL OF THE AIR & WASTE MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION, 2001, 51 (11) :1508-1521
[35]  
Seigneur C., 2004, PARTICULATE MATTER S, P283
[36]   Parameterization of cold-season processes in the MAPS land-surface scheme [J].
Smirnova, TG ;
Brown, JM ;
Benjamin, SG ;
Kim, D .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2000, 105 (D3) :4077-4086
[37]   A global off-line model of size-resolved aerosol microphysics: I. Model development and prediction of aerosol properties [J].
Spracklen, DV ;
Pringle, KJ ;
Carslaw, KS ;
Chipperfield, MP ;
Mann, GW .
ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS, 2005, 5 :2227-2252
[38]   Modeling urban and regional aerosols near acid neutrality - Application to the 24-25 June SCAQS episode [J].
Sun, Q ;
Wexler, AS .
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, 1998, 32 (20) :3533-3545
[39]   Three-dimensional simulations of inorganic aerosol distributions in east Asia during spring 2001 [J].
Tang, YH ;
Carmichael, GR ;
Seinfeld, JH ;
Dabdub, D ;
Weber, RJ ;
Huebert, B ;
Clarke, AD ;
Guazzotti, SA ;
Sodeman, DA ;
Prather, KA ;
Uno, I ;
Woo, JH ;
Yienger, JJ ;
Streets, DG ;
Quinn, PK ;
Johnson, JE ;
Song, CH ;
Grassian, VH ;
Sandu, A ;
Talbot, RW ;
Dibb, JE .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2004, 109 (D19) :D19S231-32
[40]   Biomass burning and anthropogenic sources of CO over New England in the summer 2004 [J].
Warneke, C. ;
de Gouw, J. A. ;
Stohl, A. ;
Cooper, O. R. ;
Goldan, P. D. ;
Kuster, W. C. ;
Holloway, J. S. ;
Williams, E. J. ;
Lerner, B. M. ;
McKeen, S. A. ;
Trainer, M. ;
Fehsenfeld, F. C. ;
Atlas, E. L. ;
Donnelly, S. G. ;
Stroud, Verity ;
Lueb, Amy ;
Kato, S. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2006, 111 (D23)