Expert judgement for a probabilistic accident consequence uncertainty analysis

The development of two probabilistic accident consequence codes sponsored by the European Commission and the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, COSYMA and MACCS respectively, was completed in 1990. These codes estimate the risks and other endpoints associated with accidents from hypothesised nuclear installations. In 1991, both Commissions sponsored a joint project for an uncertainty analysis of these two codes. The main objective of this joint project was systematically to derive credible and traceable probability distributions for the respective code input variables. These input distributions will subsequently be used in two uncertainty analyses for each code separately. A formal expert judgement elicitation and evaluation process was used as the best available technique to accomplish that objective. This paper shows the overall process and reports on experiences of elicitors and experts of the eight expert judgement exercises performed under the joint study.