Procedures guide for structured expert judgement in accident consequence modelling

被引:91
作者
Cooke, RM [1 ]
Goossens, LHJ [1 ]
机构
[1] Delft Univ Technol, NL-2628 BX Delft, Netherlands
关键词
D O I
10.1093/oxfordjournals.rpd.a033152
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A protocol is outlined for using structured expert judgement to generate uncertainty data for uncertainty analyses. The use of performance based weighting as an instrument to enable optimisation of the aggregated experts' assessments is emphasised. Examples are shown from the EC/USNRC joint study on Probabilistic Accident Consequence Uncertainty Analysis.
引用
收藏
页码:303 / 309
页数:7
相关论文
共 22 条
[1]  
[Anonymous], [No title captured]
[2]  
[Anonymous], JUDGEMENT CHOICE
[3]  
BROWN J, 1997, NUREGCR6523 US NUCL, V1
[4]  
BROWN J, 1997, NUREGCR6523 US NUCL, V2
[5]   CALIBRATION AND INFORMATION IN EXPERT RESOLUTION - A CLASSICAL APPROACH [J].
COOKE, R ;
MENDEL, M ;
THIJS, W .
AUTOMATICA, 1988, 24 (01) :87-93
[6]   A probabilistic model for the failure frequency of underground gas pipelines [J].
Cooke, R ;
Jager, E .
RISK ANALYSIS, 1998, 18 (04) :511-527
[7]  
Cooke R., 1991, EXPERTS UNCERTAINTY
[8]  
Cooke R. M., 1995, 15856 EUR
[9]  
COOKE RM, 18820 EUR
[10]  
Goossens L.H.J., 1996, EVALUATION WEIGHTING