The spread and quarantine of HIV infection in a prison system

被引：17

作者：

Gani, J ^{[1
]}

Yakowitz, S

Blount, M

机构：

[1] Australian Natl Univ, Stochast Anal Grp, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia

[2] Univ Arizona, Tucson, AZ USA

来源：

SIAM JOURNAL ON APPLIED MATHEMATICS | 1997年 / 57卷 / 06期

关键词：

prison; HIV infection; deterministic and stochastic epidemic models; quarantine; error bounding for Markov chains;

D O I：

10.1137/S0036139995283237

中图分类号：

O29 [应用数学];

学科分类号：

070104 ;

摘要：

This paper is concerned with models for the spread of HIV in prisons. A simple deterministic model for the spread of HIV in a single prison is considered, a discrete-time stochastic analogue of it is then discussed, and some simulations of epidemics are provided. The model is generalized to a two-prison system in both the deterministic and stochastic cases. Finally the possibilities for intervention in a prison are outlined and a simple cost-effectiveness analysis in the context of screening and quarantine is undertaken. The computations for the stochastic models make use of a new technique for bounding variability in a Markov chain with a large state space.

引用

页码：1510 / 1530

页数：21