Dynamical resonance can account for seasonality of influenza epidemics

被引：285

作者：

Dushoff, J ^{[1
]}

Plotkin, JB

Levin, SA

Earn, DJD

机构：

[1] Princeton Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[2] NIH, Fogarty Int Ctr, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[3] Harvard Soc Fellows, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] McMaster Univ, Dept Math & Stat, Hamilton, ON L8S 4K1, Canada

来源：

PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA | 2004年 / 101卷 / 48期

关键词：

demographic stochasticity; disease dynamics; susceptible infectious recovered (SIR); immunity;

D O I：

10.1073/pnas.0407293101

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

influenza incidence exhibits strong seasonal fluctuations in temperate regions throughout the world, concentrating the mortality and morbidity burden of the disease into a few months each year. The cause of influenza's seasonality has remained elusive. Here we show that the large oscillations in incidence may be caused by undetectably small seasonal changes in the influenza transmission rate that are amplified by dynamical resonance.

引用

页码：16915 / 16916

页数：2

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