Does a focal firm's technology entry timing depend on the impact of the technology on co-opetitors?

In this paper, I explore the role that the impact of a technological change on a firm's co-opetitors plays in the firm's technology p entry timing. I hypothesize that where a co-opetitor dominates in the co-opetitor-firm relationship, a firm's technology entry timing does not depend on the impact of the technology on the firm's capabilities as predicted by previous research. Rather, it depends on the impact of the change on the dominant co-opetitor. If the change is incremental to a dominant customer, for example, the focal incumbent firm will start development of the new technology before new entrants, irrespective of whether it is radical or incremental to focal firms. If the change is radical to the dominant co-opetitor, new entrant focal firms will start development of the new technology before incumbent focal firms. I explore these hypotheses using the case of three major technological changes in supercomputers: vector processors, minisupercomputers, and massively parallel processors. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.