Risk assessment of yellow fever urbanization in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

被引：25

作者：

Codeço, CT ^{[1
]}

Luz, PM ^{[1
]}

Struchiner, CJ ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Fiocruz MS, Programa Computacao Cientif, BR-21045900 Rio De Janeiro, Brazil

来源：

TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE | 2004年 / 98卷 / 12期

关键词：

yellow fever; urban emergence; stochastic model; risk analysis; epidemic modelling; Brazil;

D O I：

10.1016/j.trstmh.2003.12.019

中图分类号：

R1 [预防医学、卫生学];

学科分类号：

1004 ; 120402 ;

摘要：

Yellow fever (YF), an arthropod-borne viral disease, occurs in regions of tropical America and Africa. Sylvatic YF is endemic in the north and west of Brazil. Urban YF, on the other hand, has not been reported in the country since 1942. However, the widespread presence of the YF urban vector in Brazil has lead to concern about the potential re-emergence of YF in urban centres. Here, we assess the risk of YF emergence in the city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, by estimating the probability of infected individuals arriving from YF-endemic areas, and the probability of infective individuals triggering an epidemic. We found that the risk of urban YF emergence may reach values as high as 29% during the epizootic periods but the precision of the estimate is tow. (C) 2004 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：702 / 710

页数：9

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