Spatial structure and fluctuations in the contact process and related models

The contact process is used as a simple spatial model in many disciplines, yet because of the buildup of spatial correlations, its dynamics remain difficult to capture analytically. We introduce an empirically based, approximate method of characterizing the spatial correlations with only a single adjustable parameter. This approximation allows us to recast the contact process in terms of a stochastic birth-death process, converting a spatiotemporal problem into a simpler temporal one. We obtain considerably more accurate predictions of equilibrium population than those given by pair approximations, as well as good predictions of population variance and first passage time distributions to a given (low) threshold. A similar approach is applicable to any model with a combination of global and nearest-neighbor interactions. (C) 2000 Society for Mathematical Biology.