Background-Patients with end-stage renal disease have a high risk of premature death, mainly as the result of cardiovascular disease (CVD), which is not sufficiently explained by the conventional risk factors. We therefore prospectively investigated total mortality and cardiovascular events in 102 patients on hemodialysis and assessed the prognostic value of baseline disease status and laboratory variables including total homocysteine and cardiac troponin T. Methods and Results-Patients were followed for 2 years or until their first event of CVD (for outcome variable cardiovascular events, n=33) or death (for outcome variable total mortality, n=28). Survival was computed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent predictors of CVD events or total mortality. Cardiac troponin T emerged as the most powerful predictor of mortality, resulting in an almost 7-fold risk increase at concentrations >0.10 ng/mL (hazard ratio 6.85, 95% CI 3.04 to 15.45). Total homocysteine level greater than median was also associated with mortality (hazard ratio 2.44, 95% CI 1.10 to 5.40). These hazard ratios did not change substantially after adjustment for other risk factors. Significant predictors for CVD events were baseline diabetes, cerebrovascular disease, serum glucose, and triglycerides. After adjustment, only glucose and triglycerides remained significantly related to CVD events (hazard ratio with 95% CI 1.33 [1.12 to 1.57] and 1.14 [1.04 to 1.26], respectively, for a 1-mmol/L increase in concentration). Conclusions-We conclude that total homocysteine and particularly cardiac troponin T are important predictors of mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease, whereas other laboratory variables and baseline disease status have less prognostic value.
