机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Chen, Tianmu
[1
]
Leung, Ross Ka-Kit
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Fac Med, Stanley Ho Ctr Emerging Infect Dis, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Leung, Ross Ka-Kit
[2
]
Liu, Ruchun
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Liu, Ruchun
[1
]
Chen, Faming
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Chen, Faming
[1
]
Zhang, Xixing
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Zhang, Xixing
[1
]
Zhao, Jin
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Zhao, Jin
[1
]
Chen, Shuilian
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R ChinaChangsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
Chen, Shuilian
[1
]
机构:
[1] Changsha Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Changsha, Hunan, Peoples R China
[2] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Fac Med, Stanley Ho Ctr Emerging Infect Dis, Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
Background: More than 600,000 annual arrivals from Africa, 1.4 billion population and developing health care systems render China at non-negligible risk of imported Ebola virus disease (EVD). Method: According to the natural history of EVD, we constructed a deterministic SEIR model. Three published EVD outbreaks in Africa were enrolled to calculate the basic reproduction number (R-0) of EVD. Scenarios representing unreported and reported (with n weeks delay) imported EVD in China were simulated to evaluate the effectiveness of interventions assumed to be implemented in different periods of the outbreaks. Results: Based on previous Africa outbreak incidence datasets, our mathematical model predicted the basic reproduction number of EVD in the range of 1.53-3.54. Adopting EVD prevalence at 0.04-0.16% from the same datasets and estimated missing information and monitoring rates at 1-10%, a total of 6-194 imported cases were predicted. Be a single case left unidentified/unreported, total attack rate was predicted to reach 60.19%-96.74%. Curve fitting results showed that earlier intervention benefits in exponential and linear decrease in prevalence and duration of outbreak respectively. Conclusion: Based on past outbreak experience in China, there is a need to implement an internet-based surveillance and monitoring system in order to reinforce health policy, track suspected cases and protect the general public by timely interventions. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
机构:
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Dept Microbiol, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02118 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Geisbert, Thomas W.
;
Lee, Amy C. H.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Lee, Amy C. H.
;
Robbins, Marjorie
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Robbins, Marjorie
;
Geisbert, Joan B.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Geisbert, Joan B.
;
Honko, Anna N.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Honko, Anna N.
;
Sood, Vandana
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Sood, Vandana
;
Johnson, Joshua C.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Johnson, Joshua C.
;
de Jong, Susan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
de Jong, Susan
;
Tavakoli, Iran
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Tavakoli, Iran
;
Judge, Adam
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Judge, Adam
;
Hensley, Lisa E.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Hensley, Lisa E.
;
MacLachlan, Ian
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
机构:
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Dept Microbiol, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Dept Med, Boston, MA 02118 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Geisbert, Thomas W.
;
Lee, Amy C. H.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Lee, Amy C. H.
;
Robbins, Marjorie
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Robbins, Marjorie
;
Geisbert, Joan B.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Boston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Geisbert, Joan B.
;
Honko, Anna N.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Honko, Anna N.
;
Sood, Vandana
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Sood, Vandana
;
Johnson, Joshua C.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Johnson, Joshua C.
;
de Jong, Susan
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
de Jong, Susan
;
Tavakoli, Iran
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Tavakoli, Iran
;
Judge, Adam
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Judge, Adam
;
Hensley, Lisa E.
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
USA, Med Res Inst Infect Dis, Div Virol, Ft Detrick, MD 21702 USABoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA
Hensley, Lisa E.
;
MacLachlan, Ian
论文数: 0引用数: 0
h-index: 0
机构:
Tekmira Pharmaceut, Burnaby, BC, CanadaBoston Univ, Sch Med, Natl Emerging Infect Dis Labs Inst, Boston, MA 02118 USA