THE KERMACK-MCKENDRICK EPIDEMIC THRESHOLD THEOREM - DISCUSSION

The paper reviews the work of Kermack and McKendrick on the development of simple mathematical models of the transmission dynamics of viral and bacterial infectious agents within population of hosts. The focus of attention is centred on the notion of a threshold density of susceptible hosts to trigger an epidemic and recent extensions of this idea as expressed in the definition of a basic or case reproductive rate of infection. The main body of the paper examines recent developments of the basic Kermack-McKendrick model with an emphasis on deterministic models that describe various types of heterogeneity in the processes that determine transmission between infected and susceptible persons. Particular attention is given to the role of behavioural heterogeneity within the framework of a contact or mixing matrix which defines "who acquires infection from whom".