EMPIRICAL PREDICTION OF LIQUEFACTION-INDUCED LATERAL SPREAD

This paper presents an empirical model for predicting the amount of horizontal ground displacement resulting from liquefaction-induced lateral spread. The model was developed from multiple linear regression analyses of U.S. and Japanese case histories of lateral spread. Two general types of lateral spread are differentiated herein: (1) lateral spread towards a free face and (2) lateral spread down gentle ground slopes where a free face is absent. Ground displacement associated with free-face conditions is strongly correlated with the height of and distance from the free face. Similarly, ground displacement associated with ground slope conditions is strongly correlated with the slope of the ground surface. Other factors such as earthquake magnitude, distance from the seismic energy source, thickness of the liquefiable sediments, and the fines content and particle size of those sediments also are correlated with ground displacement. Because the final model presented herein has been adjusted for a wider range of seismic and site conditions than used in previously proposed empirical models, it is more general and will provide better results, if properly applied.