AN EPIDEMIOLOGIC ANALYSIS OF MYCOBACTERIUM-AVIUM COMPLEX DISEASE IN HOMOSEXUAL MEN INFECTED WITH HUMAN-IMMUNODEFICIENCY-VIRUS TYPE-1

Cofactors associated with the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) disease and its prognosis in incident cases of AIDS in homosexuals were studied. We compared 51 men in whom MAC disease developed as the initial AIDS-defining illness (termed AIDS illness hereafter); 157 men who had MAC disease subsequent to another AIDS illness; and 884 men who had only non-MAC AIDS illnesses. MAC disease was the initially diagnosed AIDS illness more often in Baltimore (6.9%) and Los Angeles (5.6%) than in Chicago (2.6%) and Pittsburgh (0) (P <.01), MAC disease also was a more common subsequent AIDS illness in Baltimore (14.3%) and Los Angeles (22.4%) than in Chicago (8.5%) and Pittsburgh (6.5%) (P <.0001), Prophylaxis for Pneumocystis carinii infection increased the occurrence of MAC disease as the initial AIDS illness (from 2.3% to 12.5%; P <.0001). A low white blood cell(WBC) count was slightly more predictive of MAC disease than was a low CD4(+) cell count. At 0-6, 7-12, and 13-18 months before diagnosis, the WBC cell counts of 75.0%, 61.1%, and 50.0%, respectively, of those with MAC disease as the initial AIDS illness were less than or equal to 3,400/mu L. Men in whom cytomegalovirus disease developed were at higher risk for subsequent MAC disease (relative hazard = 2.65; P <.0001), MAC disease also increased the risk for subsequent cytomegalovirus disease (relative hazard = 3.96; P <.0001).