SOCIAL SCARES AND GLOBAL WARMING - BEYOND THE RIO CONVENTION

The author contends that the factors that contributed substantially to the protocols to protect the ozone layer are not likely to generalize to global warming. Instead, extreme events capable of unleashing social scares may be necessary to stimulate significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions. The article summarizes the sociology of social scares and argues that recent developments pertaining to global warming are best explained by this concept It then shows that the scientific understanding of global warming has become increasingly uncertain and hence is unlikely to assume the catalytic role it played in ozone depletion. In lieu of this, significant extensions of the ''Climate Convention'' will probably require future social scares.