PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF AN ELEVATED CD8 LYMPHOCYTE COUNT IN HIV-INFECTION - RESULTS OF A PROSPECTIVE-STUDY OF 152 ASYMPTOMATIC HIV-POSITIVE INDIVIDUALS

Objective: To evaluate the prognostic value of an elevated CD8 lymphocyte count in the early stages of HIV infection. Design: A prospective study ongoing since January 1986. Methods: One hundred and fifty-two asymptomatic HIV-positive individuals with a CD4 lymphocyte count > 400 x 10(6)/l at enrolment were included. Disease progression was defined as a CD4 count < 200 x 10(6)/l. Results: During the follow-up period, CD4 count decreased in 33 individuals; CD8 count increased to > 1500 x 10(6)/l in 38 individuals and doubled in 35. The risk of a decreasing CD4 count was estimated to be 1.7-fold higher, although not significantly so, after the elevation of the CD8 count to > 1500 x 10(6)/l than before or in the absence of such an increase. However, this predictive value disappeared when five baseline parameters found to predict the outcome (neopterin, beta2-microglobulin, p24 antigen, anti-p18 antibody and immunoglobulin A) were adjusted. Conclusion: Elevated CD8 count appears to be a weak marker for disease progression.