EXPERT OPINIONS ABOUT EXTRAPOLATION AND THE MYSTERY OF THE OVERLOOKED DISCONTINUITIES

被引：34

作者：

COLLOPY, F ^{[1
]}

ARMSTRONG, JS ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] UNIV PENN,WHARTON SCH,PHILADELPHIA,PA 19104

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING | 1992年 / 8卷 / 04期

关键词：

DISCONTINUITIES; FORECASTING GUIDELINES; SELECTION CRITERIA; TIME SERIES FEATURES;

D O I：

10.1016/0169-2070(92)90067-J

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We report on the opinions of 49 forecasting experts on guidelines for extrapolation methods. They agreed that seasonality, trend, aggregation, and discontinuities were key features to use for selecting extrapolation methods. The strong agreement about the importance of discontinuities was surprising because this topic has been largely ignored in the forecasting literature.

引用

页码：575 / 582

页数：8

共 16 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 1985, LONG RANGE FORECASTI

[2] DATABASE MODELS AND MANAGERIAL INTUITION - 50-PERCENT MODEL + 50-PERCENT MANAGER [J].