THE HINDSIGHT BIAS - THE ROLE OF THE AVAILABILITY HEURISTIC AND PERCEIVED RISK

被引：29

作者：

AGANS, RP ^{[1
]}

SHAFFER, LS ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] W CHESTER UNIV,DEPT ANTHROPOL & SOCIOL,W CHESTER,PA 19380

来源：

BASIC AND APPLIED SOCIAL PSYCHOLOGY | 1994年 / 15卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1207/s15324834basp1504_3

中图分类号：

B84 [心理学];

学科分类号：

04 ; 0402 ;

摘要：

The influence of outcome knowledge (Fischhoff, 1975) and the availability heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974) on judgments of perceived risk was explored here. This study found that subjects were capable of making relatively appropriate probability estimates for disease, accident, and homicide in foresight, but they made relatively biased estimates in hindsight. The results suggest that hindsight information activates the use of the availability heuristic on peoples' probability estimates of certain misfortune.

引用

页码：439 / 449

页数：11

共 33 条

[1] HINDSIGHT BIAS AMONG PHYSICIANS WEIGHING THE LIKELIHOOD OF DIAGNOSES [J].

ARKES, HR ;

SAVILLE, PD ;

WORTMANN, RL ;

HARKNESS, AR .

JOURNAL OF APPLIED PSYCHOLOGY, 1981, 66 (02) :252-254

[2] MOTIVATIONAL INTERPRETATIONS OF HINDSIGHT BIAS - AN INDIVIDUAL DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS [J].

CAMPBELL, JD ;

TESSER, A .

JOURNAL OF PERSONALITY, 1983, 51 (04) :605-620

[3] THE HINDSIGHT BIAS - A METAANALYSIS [J].

CHRISTENSENSZALANSKI, JJJ ;

WILLHAM, CF .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES, 1991, 48 (01) :147-168

[4] NEWSPAPER COVERAGE OF CAUSES OF DEATH [J].

COMBS, B ;

SLOVIC, P .

JOURNALISM QUARTERLY, 1979, 56 (04) :837-&

[5]

Crano W.D., 1986, PRINCIPLES METHODS S

[6] REDUCTION OF HINDSIGHT BIAS BY RESTORATION OF FORESIGHT PERSPECTIVE - EFFECTIVENESS OF FORESIGHT-ENCODING AND HINDSIGHT-RETRIEVAL STRATEGIES [J].

DAVIES, MF .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN DECISION PROCESSES, 1987, 40 (01) :50-68

[7] I KNEW IT WOULD HAPPEN - REMEMBERED PROBABILITIES OF ONCE-FUTURE THINGS [J].

FISCHHOFF, B ;

BEYTH, R .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1975, 13 (01) :1-16

[8] EFFECT OF TEMPORAL SETTING ON LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATES [J].

FISCHHOFF, B .

ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1976, 15 (02) :180-194

[9] PERCEIVED INFORMATIVENESS OF FACTS [J].

FISCHHOFF, B .

JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-HUMAN PERCEPTION AND PERFORMANCE, 1977, 3 (02) :349-358

[10]

FISCHHOFF B, 1975, J EXPT PSYCHOL HUMAN, V1, P188

← 1 2 3 4 →