STATISTICS OF GRAVITATIONAL LENSES - THE UNCERTAINTIES

The assumptions in the analysis of gravitational lensing statistics are examined. Special emphasis is given to the uncertainties in the theoretical predictions. It is shown that a simple redshift cutoff model, which may result from galaxy evolution, can significantly reduce the lensing probability and explain the large mean separation of images in observed gravitational lenses. This effect may affect the constraint on the contribution of the cosmological constant to producing a flat universe from the number counts of the observed lenses. For the OMEGA-0 = 1 (filled beam) model, the lensing probability of early-type galaxies with finite core radii is reduced roughly by a factor of 2 for high-redshift quasars as compared with the corresponding singular isothermal sphere model. The finite core radius effect is approximately 20% for a lambda-dominated flat universe. It is also shown that the most recently galaxy luminosity function gives lensing probabilities that are smaller than previously estimated roughly by a factor of 3.