THE GROWTH OF BROWN TROUT (SALMO-TRUTTA) IN MILD WINTERS AND SUMMER DROUGHTS IN UPLAND WALES - MODEL VALIDATION AND PRELIMINARY PREDICTIONS

1. We compared the observed annual growth of 0- and I-group trout in nine Welsh upland streams, with growth predicted from temperature assuming that this was the only limiting factor. 2. Autumn weights of second year fish were 51-67% of predicted (G(max)) values in 1988, but only 30-40% in 1989 and 1990 when drought occurred. Though initial weights of fry were unknown, simulations suggested that first year growth was also less than G(max), but with no obvious effect of drought. 3. To evaluate the possible effects of future climate change, we simulated stream temperature regimes 1.5-4.5-degrees-C above those of a recent year with temperatures similar to the long-term average. Growth was set at 60% G(max) for both 0- and I-group, or at 40% for I-group to represent the effect of drought. As winter temperature increased, time to hatching and emergence decreased, for example by 56 and 49 days respectively for a rise of 3-degrees-C. 0-group growth was slightly enhanced at up to + 3-degrees-C but retarded at + 4.5-degrees-C. Simulations of I-group growth suggested that warmer winters could enhance trout growth while warmer summers would only increase growth if there were no adverse effects of drought. 4. We discuss many uncertainties in these simulations, which nevertheless suggest the magnitude of possible effects of climate change.