WORLD CONSUMPTION OF CEREALS - WILL IT DOUBLE BY 2025

A number of recent statements in the press and the professional literature signal the considerable increases in world production of cereals required to meet the growth of demand. They rightly point out the urgent need to increase investment in the agriculture of the developing countries, particularly in agricultural research, to meet the challenge. But the magnitude of the likely increases in world demand varies among authors as does the prospective role of the developed countries as net exporters of cereals. We examine the alternative projections and conclude that (a) a doubling of world demand by 2025 is an unlikely outcome and a doubling of demand of the developing countries is within the realm of realism, though optimistic, and (b) the exports of cereals from the developed countries will continue to grow but the huge quantities visualized by some authors are overly exaggerated.