A PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO GLUCOSE PREDICTION AND INSULIN DOSE ADJUSTMENT - DESCRIPTION OF METABOLIC MODEL AND PILOT EVALUATION STUDY

被引:75
作者
ANDREASSEN, S
BENN, JJ
HOVORKA, R
OLESEN, KG
CARSON, ER
机构
[1] UMDS,ST THOMAS HOSP,DEPT MED,LONDON,ENGLAND
[2] CITY UNIV LONDON,DEPT SYST SCI,LONDON,ENGLAND
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
MODELING; GLUCOSE METABOLISM; INSULIN ADJUSTMENT; CAUSAL PROBABILISTIC NETWORKS;
D O I
10.1016/0169-2607(94)90052-3
中图分类号
TP39 [计算机的应用];
学科分类号
081203 ; 0835 ;
摘要
A model of carbohydrate metabolism has been implemented as a causal probabilistic network, allowing explicit representation of the uncertainties involved in the prediction of 24-h blood glucose profiles in insulin-dependent diabetic subjects. The parameters of the model were based on experimental data from the literature describing insulin and carbohydrate absorption, renal loss of glucose, insulin-independent glucose utilisation and insulin-dependent glucose utilisation and production. The model can be adapted to the observed glucose metabolism in the individual patient and can be used to generate predicted 24-h blood glucose profiles. A penalty is assigned to each level of blood glucose, to indicate that high and low blood glucose levels are undesirable. The system can be asked to find the insulin doses that result in the most desirable 24-h blood glucose profile. In a series of 12 patients, the system predicted blood glucose with a mean error of 3.3 mmol/l. The insulin doses suggested by the system seemed reasonable and in several cases seemed more appropriate than the doses actually administered to the patients.
引用
收藏
页码:153 / 165
页数:13
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