ENERGY SUBSTITUTION METHODOLOGY FOR OPTIMUM DEMAND VARIATION USING DELPHI TECHNIQUE

The traditional approach to energy planning has been to determine the energy demand and then to plan the supply accordingly. However, the current situation calls for a methodical approach where environmental degradation, economic growth and technological efficiency are to be considered. Modified and mathematical programming energy economy environment models have been built to meet these requirements for India. The gap between the requirements predicted by the modified model and the optimum requirement from the MPEEE model must be supplied by nonconventional sources. A Delphi study was conducted to determine the possible percentage utilization of nonconventional sources, keeping in view technology, emission, availability and social acceptance. Statistical tests of consensus and stability gave positive results. The reasons for using and not using the various nonconventional energy sources were determined along with their priority of usage in different sectors. The Delphi study helped in arriving at a quantitative decision with regard to social acceptance and percentage allocation of the nonconventional energy sources.