COMMENT ON MODELING ECOLOGICAL RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC-CHANGE

Researchers have developed many computer simulation models to project ecological responses to climatic change. Three general types of models are examined: transfer functions, stand models, and physiological models. Criteria for evaluation are, first, ability to represent observed and theoretical responses to climatic change i.e., geographical migration, individualistic responses, and disequilibrium or inertia, and second, ability to provide useful information on biological diversity and impacts on society. Because of their roots in ecological interactions at the species level, stand models best meet these criteria at present, but physiological models have greater potential, given unlimited computing power.