PLANT-GROWTH AND REPRODUCTION ALONG CO2 GRADIENTS - NONLINEAR RESPONSES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR COMMUNITY CHANGE

The effects of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations on natural plant communities will depend upon the cumulative responses of plant growth and reproduction to gradual, incremental changes in climatic conditions. We analysed published studies of plant responses to elevated CO2 to address whether reproductive and total biomass exhibit similar enhancement to elevated vs. ambient CO2 concentrations, and to assess the patterns of plant response along gradients of CO2 concentrations. In six annual plant species, mean enhancement at double ambient vs. ambient CO2 was 1.13 for total biomass and 1.30 for reproductive biomass. The two measures were significantly correlated, but there was considerable scatter in the relationship, indicating that reproductive responses cannot be consistently predicted from enhancement of total biomass. Along experimental CO2 gradients utilizing three concentrations, there was a great diversity of response patterns, including positive, negative, non-monotonic and non-significant (nat) responses. The distribution of response patterns differed for plants grown in stands compared to those grown individually. Positive responses were less frequent in competitive environments, and non-monotonic responses were more frequent. These results emphasize that interpolation of plant response based on enhancement ratios measured at elevated vs. ambient CO2 concentrations is not sufficient to predict community responses to incremental changes in atmospheric conditions. The consequences of differential response patterns were assessed in a simulation of community dynamics for four species of annual plants. The model illustrates that the final community composition at a future point in time depends critically on both the magnitude and the rate of increase of atmospheric CO2.