4000 YEARS OF SEISMICITY ALONG THE DEAD-SEA RIFT

A study of major earthquake occurrence along the Dead Sea transform (35.5-degrees-36.5-degrees-E; 27.2-degrees-37.5-degrees-N) during the past four millennia has been attempted. Geological, archaeological, biblical, historical, and seismological evidence were integrated in an effort to quantify the space-time distribution of seismicity in the said province. The overall earthquake activity in the conterminous Near East indicates a stable pattern and appeared to have been stationary over the examined time window. About 110 earthquakes in the magnitude range 6.7 less-than-or-equal-to M(L) less-than-or-equal-to 8.3 affected the area during the past 2500 years. Of these, 42 originated along the Dead Sea fault system itself, while 68 were imported from the Helenic-Cyprian arcs and the Anatolian-Elburz-Zagros fault systems. These events were responsible for the repeated destruction of many cultural centers. In the Dead Sea region proper, the major seismic activity since 2100 B.C.E. (Before Christian Era), has been confined to the vicinity of its eastern shore with extremal seismicity at its southern tip near the prehistorical site of Bab-a-Dara'a (31-degrees 15'N, 35-degrees 32'E). This may constitute the first solid evidence that the Biblical "cities of the Plain" (Sodom, Gommorah, etc.) were located there. Recent studies of earthquake deformations in the Lisan deposits near Bab-a-Dara'a, agree with our findings. At the present time, a magnitude 6 3/4 earthquake is pending at the northern edge of the Levant rift, with its average recurrence interval (83 years) exceeded by one standard deviation (32 years).