THE IDENTIFICATION OF HIGH-RISK OLDER DRIVERS THROUGH AGE-MEDIATED POINT SYSTEMS

Studies have consistently shown that while young drivers pose the greatest accident risk, there is evidence of an increase in the accident rate (per driver) among older drivers at about 70 years of age. If the rates are further adjusted for mileage, the increase begins at about age 50 and becomes very steep at 70 and above. Evidence suggests that the increase in the accident rate among older drivers is attributable to age-related decrements in driving skill combined with an increased vulnerability to injury and death following trauma. This paper presents a number of analyses examining the possibility of an interactive relationship between age and prior driving record as a method for identifying high-risk drivers. The results indicate that older drivers exhibit a steeper increase in future accident risk at successive prior incident levels, relative to drivers in general. The report concludes that a record of traffic convictions presents a higher risk of accidents for older drivers than for younger drivers. Several hypotheses are offered to explain these findings. The report recommends revising the Department's negligent driver and accident reexamination process to initiate actions against older drivers based on fewer incidents.