PARITY PROGRESSION AND BIRTH INTERVALS IN CHINA - THE INFLUENCE OF POLICY IN HASTENING FERTILITY DECLINE

The Chinese government has launched two major fertility control policies over the past two decades, the wan-xi-shao-later-longer-fewer-policy of the 1970s and the one-child family policy introduced in 1979. This article examines the demographic impact of these policies by analyzing annual series of mean ages at first marriage, period parity progression ratios, and mean birth intervals for city, town, and rural residents for China as a whole, and for four provinces. The magnitude, direction, and timing of the changes give strong evidence of the impact of the policies. Although the program aimed at achieving the one-child family has received greater attention by most observers, the later-longer-fewer policy had the greater impact on fertility decline.