PROSPECTS FOR OPEC 5 YEARS AFTER 1973-74

This paper surveys more than a dozen models of OPEC and world energy markets that have appeared since 1976. Included are simulation models, optimization models, and analyses of energy balances. Attention is focused on the outlook for OPEC prices and the demand for OPEC oil exports over the next fifteen years. Virtually all analyses agree that substantial changes from current market conditions are unlikely over the next few years. Beyond 1985, however, some project a severe tightening in world oil markets, while others project no such change from current conditions. © 1979.