A PROBABILISTIC METHOD FOR THE EVALUATION OF THE RELIABILITY OF STAND ALONE WIND ENERGY-SYSTEMS

This paper describes a probabilistic method for the computation of the loss of load probability (LOLP) and the expected unserved energy (EUE) of a stand alone wind energy system. The system consists of a wind generator and a storage battery supplying the consumer load. The statistics of the surplus generation (excess wind generation over load demand) time series are computed and used for the calculation of the desired reliability indices. It is shown that, in the probability computations, the serial correlation of the surplus generation cannot be ignored. The performance of the developed method is demonstrated with computational results. Some results useful for the design of stand alone wind energy systems are also presented.