DESIRED FERTILITY AND THE IMPACT OF POPULATION POLICIES

Ninety percent of the differences across countries in total fertility rates are accounted for solely by differences in women's reported desired fertility. Using desired fertility constructed from both retrospective and prospective questions together with instrumental variables estimation, the article shows that this strong result is affected neither by ex-post rationalization of births nor by the dependence of desired fertility on contraceptive access or cost. The additional effect of contraceptive availability or family planning programs on fertility is quantitatively small and explains very little cross-country variation. These empirical results are consistent with theories in which fertility is determined by couples' choices about children within the social, educational, economic, and cultural environment couples, and especially women, face. -from Author