PREDICTING CHRONIC LETHALITY OF CHEMICALS TO FISHES FROM ACUTE TOXICITY TEST DATA - CONCEPTS AND LINEAR-REGRESSION ANALYSIS

A comprehensive approach to predicting chronic lethality from acute toxicity data was developed in which simultaneous consideration is given to concentration, degree of response, and time course of effect. A consistent end point (lethality) and degree of response (0%) were used to compare acute and chronic tests. Predicted NOECs were highly accurate 84 to 92% of the time (within a factor of 2.0 of the limits of the maximum acceptable toxicant concentrations for lethality) and did not vary by more than a factor of 3.6 97% of the time when the technique was applied to a database of 18 chemicals and seven fish species. Growth effects can be predicted from chronic lethality, but reproductive or other chronic effects should not.