A STOCHASTIC CELLULAR-AUTOMATA MODEL OF INNOVATION DIFFUSION

被引：17

作者：

BHARGAVA, SC

KUMAR, A

MUKHERJEE, A

机构：

[1] UNIV DELHI,ST STEPHENS COLL,DEPT COMP SCI,DELHI 110007,INDIA

[2] UNIV DELHI,DEPT PHYS & ASTROPHYS,DELHI 110007,INDIA

来源：

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE | 1993年 / 44卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0040-1625(93)90008-U

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A stochastic cellular automata model of new product diffusion is proposed. It is found that the growth for a given market potential can be determined by a parameter that quantifies chance preferences of individuals for the product and can be estimated from field surveys. It is also found that the ''takeover time'' in a given seed region is almost independent of the number of innovators. The results suggest possible strategies for the successful introduction of a new product.

引用

页码：87 / 97

页数：11

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