PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO SOME PROBLEMS OF SYSTEM SAFETY

One of the main events statistically described by the reliability theory is a failure of an item, device or system. Some failures are absolutely normal in the performance of technical systems, others cause very undesirable consequences, such as disasters, crashes, accidents etc. In this paper the system is called safe if it doesn't produce these results while performing. So the main event in the safety theory is a failure that is dangerous to human life or causes great economical loss. Several simple probability approaches, that are usually used in the reliability analysis, are extended to some problems of system safety. The methods of estimation of the probability of safe performance are introduced.