ON INTERMEDIATE-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN CENTRAL ITALY

被引：20

作者：

KEILISBOROK, VI

KUZNETSOV, IV

PANZA, GF

ROTWAIN, IM

COSTA, G

机构：

[1] International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Academy of Sciences of the U.S.S.R., Moscow, 113556, Warshavskoye, 79

[2] International Center for Earth and Environmental Sciences (ICS), Trieste

[3] Istituto di Geodesia e Geofisica, Universita degli Studi di Trieste, Trieste, 34123, Via dell'Universita

来源：

PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS | 1990年 / 134卷 / 01期

关键词：

algorithm CN; Central Italy; earthquake prediction; Seismology; self-similarity;

D O I：

10.1007/BF00878081

中图分类号：

P3 [地球物理学]; P59 [地球化学];

学科分类号：

0708 ; 070902 ;

摘要：

The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without any ad hoc adjustment of the parameters. Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988. Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes. © 1990 Birkhäuser Verlag.

引用

页码：79 / 92

页数：14

共 12 条

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[3]

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