ON INTERMEDIATE-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN CENTRAL ITALY

The Time of Increased Probability (TIP) for the occurrence of a strong earthquake is determined in Central Italy. This is done with an algorithm that has been successfully applied in other regions of the world (algorithm CN, from the initials of California and Nevada, where the first diagnoses of TIPs were made). The use of normalized functions allows direct application of the orginal algorithm to the new region being studied, without any ad hoc adjustment of the parameters. Retrospective analysis carried on until 1986 shows that TIPs occupy 26 percent of the total time considered and precede four out of five strong earthquakes. Forward monitoring indicates the possible existence of a TIP started in May 1988. Several tests indicate that the results obtained are quite stable, even when using catalogues from different agencies. Apart from obvious practical interest, this research is essential for the worldwide investigation of self-similarity in the origin of strong earthquakes. © 1990 Birkhäuser Verlag.