PROBABILISTIC ASSESSMENT OF TRAVEL-TIMES IN GROUNDWATER MODELING

被引：39

作者：

GOMEZHERNANDEZ, JJ

WEN, XH

机构：

[1] Departmento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente, Universidad Politécnica, Valencia

来源：

STOCHASTIC HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS | 1994年 / 8卷 / 01期

关键词：

INDICATOR KRIGING; STOCHASTIC SIMULATION; SOFT DATA; WALKER LAKE; SEQUENTIAL SIMULATION; SCALING-UP;

D O I：

10.1007/BF01581389

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A Monte Carlo approach is described for the quantification of uncertainty on travel time estimates. A real (non synthetic) and exhaustive data set of natural genesis is used for reference. Using an approach based on binary indicators, constraint interval data are easily accommodated in the modeling process. It is shown how the incorporation of imprecise data can reduce drastically the uncertainty in the estimates. It also shown that unrealistic results are obtained when a deterministic modeling is carried simulation for the generation of fields incorporating constraint interval data are discussed. The final results consists of 95% probability intervals of arrival times at selected control planes reflecting the original uncertainty on the transmissivity maps.

引用

页码：19 / 55

页数：37

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