An approach which combines particle swarm optimization and support vector machine(PSO–SVM)is proposed to forecast large-scale goaf instability(LSGI).Firstly,influencing factors of goaf safety are analyzed,and following parameters were selected as evaluation indexes in the LSGI:uniaxial compressive strength(UCS)of rock,elastic modulus(E)of rock,rock quality designation(RQD),area ration of pillar(Sp),the ratio of width to height of the pillar(w/h),depth of ore body(H),volume of goaf(V),dip of ore body(a)and area of goaf(Sg).Then LSGI forecasting model by PSO-SVM was established according to the influencing factors.The performance of hybrid model(PSO+SVM=PSO–SVM)has been compared with the grid search method of support vector machine(GSM–SVM)model.The actual data of 40 goafs are applied to research the forecasting ability of the proposed method,and two cases of underground mine are also validated by the proposed model.The results indicated that the heuristic algorithm of PSO can speed up the SVM parameter optimization search,and the predictive ability of the PSO–SVM model with the RBF kernel function is acceptable and robust,which might hold a high potential to become a useful tool in goaf risky prediction research.
