气候变化对中国水稻生产的影响研究进展

被引：74

作者：

凌霄霞 ^{[1
]}

张作林 ^{[1
]}

翟景秋 ^{[2
]}

叶树春 ^{[3
]}

黄见良 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 农业部长江中游作物生理生态与耕作重点实验室/华中农业大学植物科学技术学院

[2] 中国人民解放军部队

[3] 广东省云浮市气象局

来源：

作物学报 | 2019年 / 45卷 / 03期

基金：

国家重点研发计划;

关键词：

气候变暖; 种植北界; 稻作制度; 生育期; 产量;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

S511 [稻]; S162 [农业气候];

学科分类号：

0901 ; 0903 ;

摘要：

水稻生产系统是响应气候变化最敏感的农业生态系统之一,本文综述了当前和未来气候变化对我国水稻生产的影响。气候变化背景下,我国水稻生长季的热量资源增多,辐射资源减少,降水不均一性加大。高温热害、干旱、暴雨和洪涝灾害发生更频繁,这可能降低水、热资源的有效性。气候变化使我国单季稻和双季稻潜在种植边界显著北移,导致单季稻、早稻和晚稻的主要生育期缩短。基于统计模型和水稻生长模型的研究结果表明,如果不考虑品种改良和栽培技术的进步,气候变化使单季稻、早稻和晚稻产量下降,但不同稻作区和方法间存在差异。我国水稻生产重心北移、实测生育期延长和产量增加的变化趋势,反映了水稻生产系统通过种植分布调整、品种改良和技术改进来适应气候变化的能力。未来气候变化将进一步导致水稻生育期缩短和产量下降,对我国水稻生产和粮食安全带来严峻挑战。仍需加强气候变化影响机制的研究及其在影响评估中的应用,减小影响评估的不确定性并增加其系统性,为制定有效的应对策略提供可靠的理论支持。

引用

页码：323 / 334

页数：12

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